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Historical look on the future

Can Buffalo be one of the few teams to make a big jump into the playoffs?

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During the 2017-18 season, it’s no secret that the Sabres finished in 31st place in the NHL, setting a new all-time low. 

The one positive they got out of it is that they were rewarded by finally getting the first overall pick and selecting defensive phenom, Rasmus Dahlin.

There is a lot of hype and excitement that perhaps this is the year the Sabres finally turn the corner and start trending upwards.

Here is how some recent teams who finished last have done the following season since the lockout in 2005 and wanted to share it with our readers:


2005-06 St Louis Blues 57 pts
Next Season: 81 pts 10th overall

2006-07 Philadelphia Flyers 56 pts
Next Season: 95 pts 6th overall making it to Eastern Conference Finals

2007-08 Tampa Bay Lightning 71 pts
Next Season: 66 pts 14th overall

2008-09 New York Islanders 61 pts
Next Season: 79 pts 13th overall

2009-10 Edmonton Oilers 62 pts
Next Season: 62 pts 15th overall

2010-11 Edmonton Oilers 62 pts
Next Season: 74 pts 15th overall

2011-12 Columbus Blue Jackets 65 pts
Next Season: 55pts Tied for 8th overall *shortened season

2012-13 Florida Panthers 36 pts *shortened season
Next Season: 66 pts 15th overall

2013-14 Buffalo Sabres 52 pts
Next Season: 54 pts 16th overall

2014-15 Buffalo Sabres 54 pts
Next Season: 81 pts 14th overall

2015-16 Toronto Maple Leafs 69 pts
Next Season: 95 pts 8th overall making it to the 1st round of the playoffs

2016-17 Colorado Avalanche 48 pts
Next Season: 95 pts 8th overall making it to the 1st round of the playoffs

The results are not very promising with only three of the twelve teams making the playoffs the next season. Columbus actually did tie for the last playoff spot in 2011-12, but were eliminated due to tiebreakers. The positive is nine of the twelve teams did see substantial point increases the next season over their previous year.

Going from worst to playoffs may be a daunting task given the historical data, but the Sabres do share some strong characteristics to the three teams that made jump to being playoff teams.

The Flyers and Leafs both were the recipients of major youth movements with free agents sprinkled in that added a lot of big pieces at once in the offseason. The Sabres similarly should be seeing Casey Mittlestadt and Rasmus Dahlin make major contributions along with Jeff Skinner and Conor Sheary adding some scoring up front.

The Avalanche made the postseason last year on the back of Nathan MacKinnon, who jumped from being a good all-star caliber forward to an all-world Hart Trophy finalist. Jack Eichel has that potential if he can stay healthy and finds the right chemistry with his new forward group.

That article also included some anonymous quotes from NHL players, who have been impressed with what Buffalo has done:

“I’m really intrigued by Buffalo to see how they turn it around,” one Atlantic Division rival said. “They took some really good steps. Jason Botterill, he did some good stuff this off-season – it was cool to see some of the moves they had. Tage Thompson, there’s a lot of guys. They got [Jeff] Skinner, they got [Rasmus] Dahlin, who I’m sure is going to blossom into a heck of a player. It’s exciting to see what they’re going to do.”

The real comparison for the Sabres in the end may be the Quebec Nordiques (now Colorado Avalanche) of the late 1980’s/early 1990’s. From 1989-91, the Nordiques finished dead last in the NHL for three consecutive seasons and ended up drafting Mats Sundin (1989), Owen Nolan (1990), and Eric Lindros (1991) 1st overall. Joe Sakic was already in the fold by this point, but the addition of Lindros and his subsequent trade that brought in Peter Forsberg resulted in a mass of talent quickly. Two years after the 1991 season, the Nordiques won their division and had a fearsome roster ready to win. This would be a best case scenario for the Sabres to not just make the playoffs, but take the division crown. The talent bubble in Buffalo has been expanding greatly over the last year or two, making one believe that the Sabres upswing could be faster then many of their fellow last place brethren.

 

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NHL Standings

TEAMGPRECPTS
Atlantic Division Leaders:
3123-7-147
3020-9-141
3017-9-438
Metropolitan Division Leaders:
2917-9-337
2916-11-234
2814-11-331
Wild Card leaders:
2915-10-434
2914-10-533
-----------------------------------------
2914-12-331
2812-10-630
2813-11-430
3013-13-430
3013-14-329
2811-11-628
2712-12-327
2710-12-525
TEAMGPRECPTS
Central Division Leaders:
3019-10-139
3017-8-539
2817-9-236
Pacific Division Leaders:
3019-9-240
3115-11-535
3115-11-535
Wild Card leaders:
2916-10-335
3116-14-133
-----------------------------------------
2915-12-232
2915-12-232
2813-13-228
3112-16-327
2710-13-424
3011-18-123
309-16-523
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